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Trusting Judgements How to Get the Best Out of Experts 1st Edition by Mark Burgman ISBN 1107531020 9781107531024

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Trusting Judgements How to Get the Best Out of Experts Mark Burgman Digital Instant Download

Author(s): Mark Burgman
ISBN(s): 9781107531024, 1107531020
Edition: Paperback
File Details: PDF, 50.18 MB
Year: 2015
Language: english
SKU: EB-10416776 Categories: , Tag:

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ISBN 10: 1107531020 
ISBN 13: 9781107531024
Author: Mark Burgman

Policy- and decision-makers in government and industry constantly face important decisions without full knowledge of all the facts. They rely routinely on expert advice to fill critical scientific knowledge gaps. There are unprecedented opportunities for experts to influence decisions. Yet even the most experienced can be over-confident and error-prone, and the hidden risk is that scientists and other experts can over-reach, often with good intentions, placing more weight on the evidence they provide than is warranted. This book describes how to identify potentially risky advice, explains why group judgements outperform individual estimates, and provides an accessible and up-to-date guide to the science of expert judgement. Finally, and importantly, it outlines a simple, practical framework that will help policy- and decision-makers to ensure that the advice that they receive is relatively reliable and accurate, thus substantially improving the quality of information on which critical decisions are made.

Trusting Judgements How to Get the Best Out of Experts 1st Table of contents:

1 What’s wrong with consulting experts?

  • What do experts do?

  • So, what’s the problem?

  • We rely on expert judgement, even when we shouldn’t

  • The cause of the reliance

  • Scientific authority

  • Experts and advocates

  • Where does this leave us?

2 Kinds of uncertainty

  • Natural variation and lack of knowledge

  • Linguistic uncertainty

  • What is a good estimate?

  • All judgements are uncertain

3 What leads experts astray?

  • Status and styles of reasoning

  • Are experts better than non-experts?

  • Psychological biases

  • Conditional judgements

  • Overconfidence

  • Motivational biases

  • Culture, gender and intuition

  • The half-life of facts

  • Experts are human

  • Who is an expert?

4 Dealing with individual experts

  • Structured questions for quantities

  • Structured questions for probabilities

  • Using words for probabilities

  • Beyond question format: context, interaction and analysis

  • How hard should the analyst try?

  • Testing experts and measuring performance

  • Training and feedback

  • Conceptual models

  • Discipline is worth the effort

5 The wisdom of crowds revisited

  • Dealing with groups of experts

  • Aggregating opinions

  • Behavioural aggregation

  • Numerical aggregation

  • When are group judgements not worth having?

6 Tips to get the best out of experts

  • Advice for decision-makers

  • Advice for experts

  • The myth of expertise

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Tags: Mark Burgman, Trusting Judgements, Experts