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Rational Expectations and Inflation 3rd Edition by Thomas J Sargent ISBN 1400847648 9781400847648

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Author(s): Thomas J. Sargent
ISBN(s): 9781400847648, 1400847648
Edition: Third
File Details: PDF, 1.08 MB
Year: 2013
Language: english
SKU: EB-51955708 Category: Tag:

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ISBN 10: 1400847648
ISBN 13: 9781400847648
Author: Thomas J Sargent

A fully expanded edition of the Nobel Prize–winning economist’s classic book This collection of essays uses the lens of rational expectations theory to examine how governments anticipate and plan for inflation, and provides insight into the pioneering research for which Thomas Sargent was awarded the 2011 Nobel Prize in economics. Rational expectations theory is based on the simple premise that people will use all the information available to them in making economic decisions, yet applying the theory to macroeconomics and econometrics is technically demanding. Here, Sargent engages with practical problems in economics in a less formal, noneconometric way, demonstrating how rational expectations can satisfactorily interpret a range of historical and contemporary events. He focuses on periods of actual or threatened depreciation in the value of a nation’s currency. Drawing on historical attempts to counter inflation, from the French Revolution and the aftermath of World War I to the economic policies of Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan, Sargent finds that there is no purely monetary cure for inflation; rather, monetary and fiscal policies must be coordinated. This fully expanded edition of Rational Expectations and Inflation includes Sargent’s 2011 Nobel lecture, “United States Then, Europe Now.” It also features new articles on the macroeconomics of the French Revolution and government budget deficits.

Rational Expectations and Inflation 3rd Table of contents:

1. Rational Expectations and the Reconstruction of Macroeconomics
Behavior Changes with the Rules of the Game
The Investment Decision
Are Government Deficits Inflationary?
General Implications of the Examples
New Econometric Methods
Historical and Cross-Country Analysis
Implications for Policymakers
2. Reaganomics and Credibility
Dynamic Games
An Economy as a Dynamic Game
Are Government Deficits Inflationary?
Reaganomics and Credibility
Conclusion
3. The Ends of Four Big Inflations
Introduction
The Gold Standard
Austria
Hungary
Poland
Germany
Czechoslovakia
Conclusion
Appendix
4. Stopping Moderate Inflations: the Methods of Poincaré and Thatcher
Introduction
The “Poincaré Miracle”
The British Experience
Mrs. Thatcher’s Plan
The Outcome of the Plan So Far
Overshooting the £M3 Target
The Government Deficit
North Sea Oil and the Pound Sterling
Conclusion
Second Thoughts
Poincaré and Moreau
Methods of Thatcher and Reagan
Where to Play Chicken
5. Some Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic
with Neil Wallace
Introduction
A Simple Monetarist Model
The Cagan-Bresciani-Turroni Effect
Conclusions and Qualifications
Appendix 1
Appendix 2
Appendix 3 by Danny Quah
6. Interpreting the Reagan Deficits
Government Budget Balance
Barro Tax Smoothing
Wallace’s Game of Chicken
Conclusion
Appendix
Hall’s Model
Barro’s Model
7. Speculations About the Speculation Against the Hong Kong Dollar
with David T. Beers and Neil Wallace
A Look at Hong Kong’s Monetary System
The Official Float Policy
An Indeterminate Exchange Rate?
A Timely Depreciation
Hong Kong’s Other Options
Epilogue
8. Six Essays in Persuasion
Back to Basics on Budgets
Confrontations over Deficits
An Open Letter to the Brazilian Finance Minister
Letter to Another Brazilian Finance Minister
The Economics Are Simple
Credibility
A Delicate Institutional Issue
Advice
Reasonable Doubt about the Real Plan
An American History Lesson for Europe
9. Macroeconomic Features of the French Revolution
with François R. Velde
Introduction
Chronology of Events
Macroeconomic Theories Coloring Our Observations
Before the Revolution
Even Absolute Monarchies Have Budget Constraints
The British Experience
Across the Channel
French Fiscal Backwardness or Optimality?
Snapshot of the Old Regime Laws
Offices
Taxes
Apology for the Old Regime
Fiscal Pressures to Reform
Sentiment for Copying Britain
A Temptation Resisted
Sustainability or Bad Choices?
The Last Fiscal Crisis of the Old Regime
The Search for a New Order
Annus Mirabilis (1789)
Some Adverse and Persistent Revenue Shocks
Designing a New Tax System
Birth of a Currency
Rise and Fall of the Assignat
A Real-Bills Regime (1790–92)
War
Terror (1793–94)
Legal Restrictions
Hyperinflation (1795–96)
The Government’s Response
Default
The Legacy
Unintended Consequences for England through Specie Flows
Appendix: The Auction Mechanism
10. United States Then, Europe Now
Introduction
The Math
Need for More Economic Theory?
A Humbling Message?
Modeling Reforms
The United States
Victorious but in Default
Trade Policies
Crisis and a Second Revolution
Restructuring Fiscal Institutions
The Order of Fiscal and Monetary Reorganizations
Fiscal Policy
Discrimination and Liquidity
Federal Bailout of States
Why Pay?
Monetary Arrangements
A National Bank?
A Mint
Outcomes
Following Through?
Federal and State Paper Monies?
What Kind of Currency Union?
What Kind of Fiscal Union?
Another Federal Bailout of the States?
Lessons for Now?

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