Climate Change and Climate Modeling 1st edition by David Neelin ISBN 0521602432 978-0521602433
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ISBN 10: 0521602432
ISBN 13: 978-0521602433
Author: David Neelin
Provides students with a solid foundation in climate science, with which to understand global warming, natural climate variations, and climate models. As climate models are one of our primary tools for predicting and adapting to climate change, it is vital we appreciate their strengths and limitations. Also key is understanding what aspects of climate science are well understood and where quantitative uncertainties arise. This textbook will inform the future users of climate models and the decision-makers of tomorrow by providing the depth they need, while requiring no background in atmospheric science and only basic calculus and physics. Developed from a course that the author teaches at UCLA, material has been extensively class-tested and with online resources of colour figures, Powerpoint slides, and problem sets, this is a complete package for students across all sciences wishing to gain a solid grounding in climate science.
Climate Change and Climate Modeling 1st Table of contents:
1 Overview of climate variability and climate science
1.1 Climate dynamics, climate change and climate prediction
1.2 The chemical and physical climate system
1.2.1 Chemical and physical aspects of the climate system
1.2.2 El Niño and global warming
1.3 Climate models: a brief overview
1.4 Global change in recent history
1.4.1 Trace gas concentrations
1.4.2 A word on the ozone hole
1.4.3 Some history of global warming studies
1.4.4 Global temperatures
1.5 El Niño: an example of natural climate variability
1.5.1 Some history of El Niño studies
1.5.2 Observations of El Niño: the 1997–98 event
1.5.3 The first El Niño forecast with a coupled ocean–atmosphere model
1.6 Paleoclimate variability
Notes
2 Basics of global climate
2.1 Components and phenomena in the climate system
2.1.1 Time and space scales
2.1.2 Interactions among scales and the parameterization problem
2.2 Basics of radiative forcing
2.2.1 Blackbody radiation
2.2.2 Solar energy input
2.3 Globally averaged energy budget: first glance
2.4 Gradients of radiative forcing and energy transports
2.5 Atmospheric circulation
2.5.1 Vertical structure
2.5.2 Latitude structure of the circulation
2.5.3 Latitude–longitude dependence of atmospheric climate features
2.6 Ocean circulation
2.6.1 Latitude–longitude dependence of oceanic climate features
2.6.2 The ocean vertical structure
2.6.3 The ocean thermohaline circulation
2.7 Land surface processes
2.8 The carbon cycle
Notes
3 Physical processes in the climate system
3.1 Conservation of momentum
3.1.1 Coriolis force
3.1.2 Pressure gradient force
3.1.3 Velocity equations
3.1.4 Application: geostrophic wind
3.1.5 Pressure–height relation: hydrostatic balance
3.1.6 Application: pressure coordinates
3.2 Equation of state
3.2.1 Equation of state for the atmosphere: ideal gas law
3.2.2 Equation of state for the ocean
3.2.3 Application: atmospheric height–pressure–temperature relation
3.2.4 Application: thermal circulations
3.2.5 Application: sea level rise due to oceanic thermal expansion
3.3 Temperature equation
3.3.1 Ocean temperature equation
3.3.2 Temperature equation for air
3.3.3 Application: the dry adiabatic lapse rate near the surface
3.3.4 Application: decay of a sea surface temperature anomaly
3.3.5 Time derivative following the parcel
3.4 Continuity equation
3.4.1 Oceanic continuity equation
3.4.2 Atmospheric continuity equation
3.4.3 Application: coastal upwelling
3.4.4 Application: equatorial upwelling
3.4.5 Application: conservation of warm water mass in an idealized layer above the thermocline
3.5 Conservation of mass applied to moisture
3.5.1 Moisture equation for the atmosphere and surface
3.5.2 Sources and sinks of moisture, and latent heat
3.5.3 Application: surface melting on an ice sheet
3.5.4 Salinity equation for the ocean
3.6 Moist processes
3.6.1 Saturation
3.6.2 Saturation in convection; lifting condensation level
3.6.3 The moist adiabat and lapse rate in convective regions
3.6.4 Moist convection
3.7 Wave processes in the atmosphere and ocean
3.7.1 Gravity waves
3.7.2 Kelvin waves
3.7.3 Rossby waves
3.8 Overview
Notes
4 El Niño and year-to-year climate prediction
4.1 Recap of El Niño basics
4.1.1 The Bjerknes hypothesis
4.2 Tropical Pacific climatology
4.3 ENSO mechanisms I: extreme phases
4.4 Pressure gradients in an idealized upper layer
4.4.1 Subsurface temperature anomalies in an idealized upper layer
4.5 Transition into the 1997–98 El Niño
4.5.1 Subsurface temperature measurements
4.5.2 Subsurface temperature anomalies during the onset of El Niño
4.5.3 Subsurface temperature anomalies during the transition to La Niña
4.6 El Niño mechanisms II: dynamics of transition phases
4.6.1 Equatorial jets and the Kelvin wave
4.6.2 The Kelvin wave speed
4.6.3 What sets the width of the Kelvin wave and equatorial jet?
4.6.4 Response of the ocean to a wind anomaly
4.6.5 The delayed oscillator model and the recharge oscillator model
4.6.6 ENSO transition mechanism in brief
4.7 El Niño prediction
4.7.1 Limits to skill in ENSO forecasts
4.8 El Niño remote impacts: teleconnections
4.9 Other interannual climate phenomena
4.9.1 Hurricane season forecasts
4.9.2 Sahel drought
4.9.3 North Atlantic oscillation and annular modes
Notes
5 Climate models
5.1 Constructing a climate model
5.1.1 An atmospheric model
5.1.2 Treatment of sub-grid-scale processes
5.1.3 Resolution and computational cost
5.1.4 An ocean model and ocean–atmosphere coupling
5.1.5 Land surface, snow, ice and vegetation
5.1.6 Summary of principal climate model equations
5.1.7 Climate system modeling
5.2 Numerical representation of atmospheric and oceanic equations
5.2.1 Finite-difference versus spectral models
5.2.2 Time-stepping and numerical stability
5.2.3 Staggered grids and other grids
5.2.4 Parallel computer architecture
5.3 Parameterization of small-scale processes
5.3.1 Mixing and surface fluxes
5.3.2 Dry convection
5.3.3 Moist convection
5.3.4 Land surface processes and soil moisture
5.3.5 Sea ice and snow
5.4 The hierarchy of climate models
5.5 Climate simulations and climate drift
5.6 Evaluation of climate model simulations for present-day climate
5.6.1 Atmospheric model climatology from specified SST
5.6.2 Climate model simulation of climatology
5.6.3 Simulation of ENSO response
Notes
6 The greenhouse effect and climate feedbacks
6.1 The greenhouse effect in Earth’s current climate
6.1.1 Global energy balance
6.1.2 A global-average energy balance model with a one-layer atmosphere
6.1.3 Infrared emissions from a layer
6.1.4 The greenhouse effect: example with a completely IR-absorbing atmosphere
6.1.5 The greenhouse effect in a one-layer atmosphere, global-average model
6.1.6 Temperatures from the one-layer energy balance model
6.2 Global warming I: example in the global-average energy balance model
6.2.1 Increases in the basic greenhouse effect
6.2.2 Climate feedback parameter in the one-layer global-average model
6.3 Climate feedbacks
6.3.1 Climate feedback parameter
6.3.2 Contributions of climate feedbacks to global-average temperature response
6.3.3 Climate sensitivity
6.4 The water vapor feedback
6.5 Snow/ice feedback
6.6 Cloud feedbacks
6.7 Other feedbacks in the physical climate system
6.7.1 Stratospheric cooling
6.7.2 Lapse rate feedback
6.8 Climate response time in transient climate change
6.8.1 Transient climate change versus equilibrium response experiments
6.8.2 A doubled-CO2 equilibrium response experiment
6.8.3 The role of the oceans in slowing warming
6.8.4 Climate sensitivity in transient climate change
Notes
7 Climate model scenarios for global warming
7.1 Greenhouse gases, aerosols and other climate forcings
7.1.1 Scenarios, forcings and feedbacks
7.1.2 Forcing by sulfate aerosols
7.1.3 Commonly used scenarios
7.2 Global-average response to greenhouse warming scenarios
7.3 Spatial patterns of warming for time-dependent scenarios
7.3.1 Comparing projections of different climate models
7.3.2 Multi-model ensemble averages
7.3.3 Polar amplification of warming
7.3.4 Summary of spatial patterns of the response
7.4 Ice, sea level, extreme events
7.4.1 Sea ice and snow
7.4.2 Land ice
7.4.3 Extreme events
7.5 Summary: the best-estimate prognosis
7.6 Climate change observed to date
7.6.1 Temperature trends and natural variability: scale dependence
7.6.2 Is the observed trend consistent with natural variability or anthropogenic forcing?
7.6.3 Sea ice, land ice, ocean heat storage and sea level rise
7.7 Emissions paths and their impacts
7.8 The road ahead
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