A History of Financial Crises Dreams and Follies of Expectations 1st Edition by Cihan Bilginsoy 9780415687249 0415687241
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ISBN 10:0415687241
ISBN 13: 9780415687249
Author:Cihan Bilginsoy
“Once-in-a-lifetime” financial crises have been a recurrent part of life in the last three decades. It is no longer possible to dismiss or ignore them as aberrations in an otherwise well-functioning system. Nor are they peculiar to recent times. Going back in history, asset price bubbles and bank-runs have been an endemic feature of the capitalist system over the last four centuries. The historical record offers a treasure trove of experience that may shed light on how and why financial crises happen and what can be done to avoid them – provided we are willing to learn from history.
This book interweaves historical accounts with competing economic crisis theories and reveals why commentaries are often contradictory. First, it presents a series of episodes from tulip mania in the 17th century to the subprime mortgage meltdown. In order to tease out their commonalities and differences, it describes political, economic, and social backgrounds, identifies the primary actors and institutions, and explores the mechanisms behind the asset price bubbles, crashes, and bank-runs. Second, it starts with basic economic concepts and builds five competing theoretical approaches to understanding financial crises. Competing theoretical standpoints offer different interpretations of the same event, and draw dissimilar policy implications.
This book analyses divergent interpretations of the historical record in relation to how markets function, the significance of market imperfections, economic decision-making process, the role of the government, and evolutionary dynamics of the capitalist system. Its diverse theoretical and historical content of this book complements economics, history and political science curriculum.
A History of Financial Crises Dreams and Follies of Expectations 1st Table of contents:
1 Introduction
The “vision” thing
Types of financial crises and the scope of the book
Plan of the book
2 Tulip mania
Background
A digression on forward and futures contracts, hedging, and short selling
Early Dutch tulip market: collectors and growers
Enter the florists
The boom
The crash
The aftermath
3 The Mississippi Bubble
Money, credit, banking, and government debt in the early eighteenth century
John Law in France
Step 1: The General Bank
Step 2: The Mississippi Company
Step 3: Conversion of the long-term national debt
The uneasy boom
The bust
The aftermath
4 The South Sea Bubble
Background
The South Sea Company: early years
The second round of debt conversion
The boom
The panic
The resolution
The Mississippi and South Sea bubbles: a comparison
On the three classic bubbles
5 Rationality, fundamentals, and prices: first principles
Fundamentals of commodity prices
Fundamentals of security prices
Unknown future: risk vs. uncertainty
The rational expectations hypothesis
Rational bubbles?
The rationality postulate
Alternatives to rationality as optimization
Stabilizing and destabilizing speculation
6 Explaining asset-price bubbles and banking crises
The fundamentals-based orthodoxy: bubble? What bubble?
The government did it: policy-induced distortions
Market frictions and imperfections
The behavioralist approach
Bagehot–Minsky–Kindleberger: the financial delicacy/instability hypothesis
Concluding comments
7 Technological revolutions and speculation: nineteenth-century British railways and banks
Canals
Early years of the railways and the 1825 boom and panic
The railway panic of 1836–7
The railway fever of 1845
The bust
Understanding British railway manias
8 The American experience I: the antebellum era
The US financial system: the early years and the 1819 crisis
The land panic of 1837
The banking panic of 1857
9 The American experience II: the gilded age
The railroad panic of 1873
The panic of 1893
Bank runs revisited
The Bankers’ Panic of 1907
The establishment of the Federal Reserve System
10 The crash of 1929
The economic landscape
The banking system
The stock market
Prelude to the crash: 1928–9
The fall
What happened? Interpretations
The banking panic
The crash of 1929 and the Great Depression
The legislative response to the crash
11 Mighty magic of the market
Moral philosophers
Adam Smith
From Adam Smith to neoclassical economic theory
In defense of the market system: allocative and productive efficiency
In defense of the market system: informational efficiency
Market failures
12 The conjurations of financial markets
The invisible hand in financial markets
Market failures
The efficient-market hypothesis
Keynes on market efficiency
Evidence for the efficient-market hypothesis
13 The 1980s: financial capitalism unchained
The rise and fall of the golden age of capitalism
Leveraged buyouts and junk bonds
The savings and loan debacle
Options pricing and portfolio insurance
The crash of 1987
The end of the decade
The legacy of the 1980s
14 The 1990s: the triumph of financial capitalism
The banking system
The alphabet soup of financial complexity
Value-at-risk
The rise and fall of Long-Term Capital Management
The dot-com bubble, 1998–2001
15 The latest act: subprime mortgages and derivatives
The housing market
The mortgage market and securitization
A smorgasbord of mortgage loans
Credit default (and other) swaps
16 The latest act: the crash of the 2000s
Leverage, leverage, everywhere
The great unraveling
Why did it happen?
17 Two legacies of the subprime sinkhole
The subprime crisis and the economics discipline
The subprime crisis and financial-market regulation
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